Elijah J. Magnier: The War in Syria is Over, What Happens Next?

Geopolitics & Empire · Elijah J. Magnier: The War in Syria is Over, What Happens Next? #092 Senior Political Risk Analyst Elijah J. Magnier discusses the end of the war in Syria and what follows as the U.S. pulls out, Syria is reintegrated into the Arab League, Russia helps consolidate Syrian sovereignty, the Kurds are left to fend for themselves, and Turkey and Israel ponder on how to move forward. Transcript Podcast: On this edition of Geopolitics and Empire, we interview senior political risk analyst, Elijah Magnier, who has over 30 years of experience and in depth knowledge of the Middle East. We'll be looking at the developments in Syria, and examine whether the war is really over. Why don't we start with President Trump's announcement of US withdrawal? Podcast: This is confusing, because we know the US has had a long term plan of regime change in Syria, and just a week or two ago, an article was published describing how US forces would remain indefinitely in Syria, and then we hear Trump say that US forces are pulling out. His claim that the US has defeated ISIS is kind of silly, because in reality, it's been Syria, Russia, and Iran who were largely responsible for defeating a US sponsored ISIS, but Trump's comment is a face saving measure perhaps before a naïve US populace. Podcast: Some people remain skeptical as to the US pulling out, what is your assessment? [spoiler] Elijah Magnier: Yes, hi, I think from what we have seen today, and what we have seen in the last couple of weeks, it seems Trump is serious about pulling out his troops from Syria, particularly in the area that his forces are occupying in the Northeast of Syria, and that is [inaudible 00:01:27] province, and [inaudible 00:01:28], and part of [inaudible 00:01:30]. Elijah Magnier: The reaction of his defense secretary, the reaction of other diplomats like Brett McGurk, who resigned from the US establishment, was a good indication that Trump wants to go ahead and pull out of Syria. Moreover, the reaction of Turkey that was insisting on disarming the YPG Kurds that are the PKK version, Syria PKK version, that also confirm one thing, that the US can no longer protect the Kurds, and can no longer stay in that part of the country. Elijah Magnier: Today, we saw the Syrian forces deploying two small divisions in Manbij, and particularly in an area around Arima that's a village west of Manbij that they Syrian and the Russian use to maintain an observation location in the area for over a year, and they pull out from this 20 location in the area, like Arima, Arab Hassan Kabir, [inaudible 00:02:54], Al Furat, Dandaniya, and all these villages. Elijah Magnier: They pull out, and they pull out when Turkey attack Afrin, and they returned only three days ago, but before they have reached an agreement with the Kurds yesterday evening, late around midnight, so they have decided to send two small divisions in the city of Manbij, and the Kurds, YPG, announce their withdrawal from the city, although the Americans are still there, but the Americans can do nothing without the Kurds, because they have used the Kurds as a human shield to protect them, and the presence of 2,000, or 2,000 or a little bit more than 2,000 American troops are not enough to protect the Americans in an area that is more or less 50,000 square meters. That is more or less a third of Syria, which is exactly between 23 to 24% of the geographic Syria. Elijah Magnier: Therefore, they need the Kurds, and if they Kurds pulled out of Manbij, there are no other forces that can protect the Americans, so, yes, my answer is Trump seems serious, now the Syrian army moved in, they put the Russian and the Syrian flag on all the position, they are regaining control of to give a strong indication to the Americans and to Turkey that now Russia is involved, and no other force will regain the force of the Syrian territory but the Syrian army. Podcast: We're seeing other promising signs,