What Transaction Data Reveals About Our Economic Future

Consumer spending has weakened across the board in recent weeks, with fast fashion, resale, and off-price retail emerging as relative winners in an otherwise concerning landscape. Michael Gunther, VP and head of insights at Consumer Edge, shares data-driven perspectives on current consumer trends and what they indicate about the broader economic picture. • Recent transaction data shows spend patterns weakening across industries during the past 4-5 weeks • Winners in this environment include fast fashion, resale markets, and discount retail—categories typically associated with economic pullbacks • Corporate earnings calls increasingly mention tariffs and "geopolitical uncertainty" as key concerns • Unlike pandemic-era pullbacks, there"s no pent-up demand waiting to be unleashed as travel and entertainment spending has normalized • High-income consumers and younger demographics are maintaining relatively stronger spending, though still showing signs of trading down • Companies successfully targeting these stronger demographic segments (Hollister, Shein, Cartier, MyTheresa) are better positioned to weather the downturn • Sustainability remains a driver of consumer choices alongside price sensitivity, particularly in the resale market • Key indicators to watch include transaction data across discretionary categories and grocery price inflation, especially in tariff-impacted categories