Karsten Jeske: Cracking the Code on Retirement Spending Rates

Our guest on the podcast today is Karsten Jeske, the founder of the website EarlyRetirementNow and a thoughtful and technically proficient member of the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) community. In 2018, Karsten retired in his early 40s, after a career in the financial world. He served as Director of Asset Allocation Research for Mellon Capital Management from 2008 through 2018, and before that, was a research economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta for a decade. Karsten has his PhD in economics from the University of Minnesota and has taught undergraduate and PhD-level economics at Emory University. He's also a chartered financial analyst. Background Karsten Jeske Bio Early Retirement Now FIRE Definition The Pandemic’s Impact on the FIRE Movement “The Shortest Recession Ever? My Thoughts on the State of the Economy,” by Karsten Jenke, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Aug. 25, 2020. “Tanja Hester: The Pandemic Will Stoke Interest in Early Retirement,” by Christine Benz and Jeffrey Ptak, The Long View, June 3, 2020. “The Coronavirus Pandemic and Retirement Security,” by Mark Miller, Morningstar.com, Aug. 24, 2020. “Retiring During a Pandemic,” by Christine Benz and Maria Bruno, Morningstar.com, Aug. 14, 2020. “Can You Retire Early? Should You?” by Christine Benz and Susan Dziubinski, Aug. 7, 2020. Early Withdrawal Rates for Early Retirees The Trinity Study The Safe Withdrawal Rate Series--A Guide for First-Time Readers “Do We Really Have to Lower our Safe Withdrawal Rate to 0.5% Now?” by Karsten Jeske, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Aug. 31, 2020. Shiller P/E Ratio Definition “Who’s Afraid of a Bear Market?” by Karsten Jeske, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Oct. 30, 2019. Low Bond Yields and Withdrawal Rates “Jamie Hopkins: How Low Bond Yields, Recession Impact Retirement Planning,” by Christine Benz and Jeffrey Ptak, The Long View, July 14, 2020. “Wade Pfau: The 4% Rule is No Longer Safe,” by Christine Benz and Jeffrey Ptak, The Long View, April 29, 2020. “What Ultralow Yields Mean for Your Financial and Retirement Plan,” by Christine Benz, Morningstar.com, May 4, 2020. “Low Rates Aren’t Going Anywhere. Here’s What That Means for Retirement Planning,” by David Blanchett, ThinkAdvisor.com, Aug. 14, 2020. IRA Required Minimum Distribution Worksheet Bogleheads’ Variable Percentage Withdrawal Sequence of Return Risk/Asset Allocation Sequence Risk Definition “The Extraordinary Upside Potential of Sequence of Return Risk in Retirement,” by Michael Kitces, kitces.com, Feb. 20, 2019. “The Pros and Cons of Rising Equity Glide Paths in Retirement,” by Wade Pfau, forbes.com, May 4, 2017. “The Portfolio Size Effect and Using a Bond Tent to Navigate the Retirement Danger Zone,” by Michael Kitces, Kitces.com, Oct. 5, 2016. “Cut Stocks or Add to Them? A Key Dilemma to Your Retirement Plan,” by Christine Benz, morningstar.com, July 25, 2019. “How to Determine Asset Allocation in a Retirement Portfolio,” interview with Christine Benz and David Blanchett, Morningstar.com, April 29, 2015. “The Yield Illusion: How Can a High-Dividend Portfolio Exacerbate Sequence Risk?” by Karsten Jeske, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Feb. 13, 2019. Healthcare and the FIRE Movement “Top 3 Health Insurance Options If You Retire Early,” by Thom Tracy, Investopedia.com, April 14, 2020. “How Does the F.I.R.E Movement Affect Insurance?” by Brianna Slattery, clearsurance.com, Jan. 23, 2020. “The Ten Commandments of Whole Life Insurance,” by Karsten Jeske, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Sept. 26, 2018. Health Care Sharing Ministry Affordable Care Act Social Security “Taxation of Social Security: The Tax Torpedo & Roth Conversion Tightrope,” by Karsten Jeske, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Nov. 13, 2019. “Social Security Benefits: Early or Late Retirement?” ssa.gov. Networking & Socializing in Retirement “Work, Retirement, and Social Networks at Older Ages,” by Eleonora Patacchini and Gary V. Engelhardt, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, November 2016. “Why It’s Important to Stay Social in Retirement and How to Do It,” by Rob Pascale, forbes.com, Oct. 31, 2019.