The State of the Economy for May 2025

Tariffs and stock market movements remained top of mind for consumers in May. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—showed modest improvement overall. Expectations for business conditions and the labor market inched up but stayed in pessimistic territory. The key bright spot was income expectations, which moved into positive territory, supported by a stronger stock market and early signs of progress on a trade deal with China.    Dana Peterson, Chief Economist and Leader of the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center at The Conference Board, sits down with Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators, and Erik Lundh, Senior Global Economist, to discuss the outlook for the US GDP, whether consumers are worried about a recession, and how the Fed might handle the current uncertainty.    00:38 Consumer Confidence in May   01:34 Impact of Tariffs and Financial Markets   04:08 Consumer Expectations and Spending   08:21 Inflation and Financial Concerns   13:03 Changes in US and Global Economic Forecasts   21:10 Factors Influencing Future Economic Outlook   22:46 Conclusion and Farewell