Robin Hanson: How Global Elites Manufactured Stagnation and How We Escape

Robin Hanson is a leading research of prediction markets, a professor of economics at George Mason University, author of the Elephant in the Brain and the Age of Em, and the writer of the blog Overcoming Bias. The audio essay of this show discusses the nature and enemies of “common sense” economic progress, as well as the cost-benefit analysis of going after said enemies. The topics discussed include prediction markets, market manipulation, game theory, global conformity, the timeline and strength of “wokeness”, innovation, internal selection, self-deception, hidden motives, and opportunities for young innovators. Robin Hanson’s website: https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/home.html https://twitter.com/robinhanson Opening Twitter poll: The Elephant in the Brain: https://www.amazon.ca/Elephant-Brain-Hidden-Motives-Everyday/dp/0190495995 The Age of Em: https://www.amazon.ca/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/1536619590 Pew Research Poll https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/11/09/beyond-red-vs-blue-the-political-typology-2/ Timestamps:2:27 Audio essay 9:43 Interview Starts 15:55 How People (Don't) Prioritize 22:47 Academia vs. Industry Science 24:39 Prediction Markets 31:27 Manipulating the Market 49:14 Working with DARPA 55:01 Polymarket Ban 58:00 Regulatory Environment of Futures 1:06:03 Why Aren't Prediction Markets More Popular? 1:15:02 Self-Deception 1:29:24 Why People Have Conversations 1:33:33 Institutions 1:41:19 Why Do Institutions Rot? 1:44:57 Midwits and the Bozo Explosion 1:47:57 The World Mob 2:01:38 Global Homogenization 2:04:24 The Threat of Populism vs. Elitism 2:13:32 The Peak of Wokeness 2:18:51 Creating Competition 2:23:52 Young Contrarians 2:27:23 Outro This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.fromthenew.world/subscribe