Why Roman Interest Rates Collapsed After Augustus Won | Fertility Economics Questions Answered | Friedman & Reagan on the Gold Standard – ep 304

Gene responds to thoughtful listener feedback on record-low fertility rates and explores why childcare, IVF, and returning to work for fortysomething mothers can be so economically challenging. He then travels back to ancient Rome to unpack a curious moment after Augustus’s victory over Antony and Cleopatra, when treasure flooded into Rome, interest rates plummeted, and land values soared—and explains how this fits neatly into modern monetary economics. Finally, Gene revisits remarkable exchanges between Milton Friedman, Alan Greenspan, and Ronald Reagan that shed fresh light on the perennial debate over the gold standard. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com. TimestampsIntroduction (0:00)Childcare Costs and Staffing Ratios (5:15)IVF Costs and Penalties for Women Returning to Work (9:52)Rise of Singleton Households and Economics of Smaller Populations (17:32)Economic Impact of Ancient Rome’s Influx of Gold and Treasure (22:56)Milton Friedman and the Gold Standard (42:01)TakeawaysChildcare costs are structurally high due to labour intensity, mandated staff–child ratios, and qualification requirements.The “motherhood penalty” is real and appears driven partly by human capital loss during career breaks and partly by occupational choices for flexibility.Augustus’s influx of treasure into Rome increased real money balances, pushing interest rates from ~12% to ~4% and boosting land prices—an excellent real-world example of short-run monetary non-neutrality.Milton Friedman and Alan Greenspan both advised Ronald Reagan NOT to pursue a gold standard, arguing fiscal discipline and controlled monetary growth matter more than metal backing.Links relevant to the conversation Referenced Previous Episodes Is Gold Flashing a Warning Sign?  https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/is-gold-flashing-a-warning-sign-ep303 The Great Baby Bust https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/the-great-baby-bust-why-it-happened-and-what-it-means-for-us-ep300 The Gender Pay Debate: Understanding the Factors Behind the Gap w/ Dr Leonora Risse - EP230 https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/the-gender-pay-debate-understanding-the-factors-behind-the-gap-w-dr-leonora-risse-ep230 The Gender Pay Gap w/ Dr Leonora Risse https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/the-gender-pay-gap-with-dr-leonora-risse China’s falling population & global population update - EP174 https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/chinas-falling-population-global-population-update-ep174 U.S. Census data on rising singleton households https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/06/more-than-a-quarter-all-households-have-one-person.html   “The Motherhood Wage Penalty: A Meta-Analysis” – Social Science Research paper https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0049089X20300144 Florida childcare staffing ratios https://www.elcslc.org/parents/vpk-locator/licensing-files-what-to-look-for/state-of-florida-mandated-adult-to-child-ratios/ Australian childcare qualification requirements https://earlychildhood.qld.gov.au/careers/qualifications-and-pathways/approved-qualifications Books Mentioned Tom Holland’s translation of Suetonius – Lives of the Caesars https://www.amazon.com.au/Lives-Caesars-Suetonius/dp/0241186897 Sebastian Mallaby – The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan https://www.amazon.com.au/Man-Who-Knew-Times-Greenspan/dp/0143111094 Mark Blaug – Economic Theory in Retrospect https://www.amazon.com.au/Economic-Theory-Retrospect-Universiteit-Amsterdam/dp/0521577012 Cassius Dio – Roman History https://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/e/roman/texts/cassius_dio/51*.htmlLumo Coffee promotion 10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee. Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED Promo code: 10EXPLORED