"We Need Things Codified Into Law Because The Pendulum Swings Every 2-4 Years" - Jack Belcher, Sarah Venuto & Brook Papau

Today we were delighted to welcome Jack Belcher and Sarah Venuto of Cornerstone Government Affairs, along with Brook Papau, CEO of Orennia, for a discussion focused on the energy implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB). Jack, a Principal at Cornerstone, has over 30 years of experience in energy and energy policy, having previously served as Manager of Regulatory Affairs and Policy at Shell and Staff Director for the U.S. House Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources. Sarah, Principal and Counsel, joined Cornerstone in 2023 following roles as Director of the Office of External Affairs at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Senior Advisor and Chief Counsel to Senator Joe Manchin, and Democratic Staff Director for the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. Brook founded Orennia in 2021 and previously served as Managing Director at RS Energy Group (now Enverus). Between Jack, Sarah, and Brook, we had a wealth of insight and expertise that fueled a thoughtful and detailed conversation.   In our discussion, we explore the implications of the OBBB for U.S. energy policy, including a shift in emphasis toward fossil fuels (particularly natural gas), along with a renewed focus on reliability and dispatchability. Jack shares his perspective on the “winners” (oil and gas, nuclear, geothermal, and hydrogen) and “losers” (wind and solar), major changes to clean energy tax credits, and the pullback of unobligated funds from federal agencies reclaiming money originally authorized under the IRA. We discuss the introduction of Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions across tax credits, intended to accelerate the reshoring of critical supply chains, and how the current energy tax credit framework increasingly aligns with Trump Administration energy priorities. Brook shares implications for the U.S. grid and power mix, including anticipated delayed retirements of natural gas facilities, a near-term rush to install solar, wind, and storage while tax credits remain in place, severe supply chain constraints for new thermal generation, and growing post-2028 uncertainty as AI-driven demand growth threatens to outpace renewable power additions for the first time. Sarah describes the evolving U.S. energy policy landscape, with regulatory loosening across federal agencies, reduced enforcement capacity due to staffing cuts, and a return to traditional energy provisions, including reinstated onshore and offshore lease sales, lowered royalty rates, renewed support for drilling in Alaska, and accelerated tax treatment for intangible drilling costs. We examine the continued bipartisan support for nuclear, growing cross-party momentum for reshoring advanced manufacturing and critical supply chains, the inflation implications of phasing out tax credits, the partial permitting reforms included in the bill, the importance of codifying reforms into law to avoid policy reversals, early industry reaction to the bill, and much more. As mentioned, a few slides from Orennia’s latest report on the OBBB are linked here. It was an engaging and insightful conversation, and we greatly appreciate Jack, Sarah, and Brook for sharing their perspectives.   Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting broader equity market performance, recent OPEC+ developments, and President Trump’s surprising proposal to implement a copper import tariff. On the broader equity market front, markets have mostly moved sideways this week after posting all-time highs last week on passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill. Trumpatility is beginning to resurface ahead of President Trump’s July 9th tariff deadline. Upcoming CPI and PPI reports, due next week, could significantly influence whether the Fed moves to cut interest rates at the July 30th FOMC Meeting. Additionally, Q2 reporting begins