Vol’s Gone. Margins Still High. This Market’s About to Snap

In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO, Greg Newman, Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets, and Geek in the Seat, Mita Chaturvedi, analyse the past week in the oil market.  Greg, Harry, and Mita break down the shifting dynamics in crude markets following the latest OPEC output announcements and Saudi crude allocations. They examine how sentiment flipped from bearish to cautiously bullish, with a focus on the impact of geopolitical risks and physical oil fundamentals - including refinery margins and regional supply signals.  The team take a detailed look at the 25-delta risk reversal, implications of volatility normalisation, and what the narrowing put-call skew is telling us about trader positioning. They also cover why hedge fund flows are subdued, how Brent/Dubai spreads are reacting to supply concerns, and the recent rally in Singapore VLSFO time spreads. The Officials also call in to weigh in on Saudi allocations, spot markets, and the North Sea. Want to trade?  Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ 🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 13th May, 2025. 👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets:  https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ 👉 Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal:  https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux 👉 The Officials report:  https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/ 👉 Oil swaps dictionary:  https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw  https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup  Follow us: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/ X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/   Chapters for this episode are:  0:00 Introduction 1:25 Temperature Check: Your Pulse on the Market  8:51 Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market? 20:53 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown 29:26 Hedge Fund Watch 35:16 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big! 47:55 Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trading Losses 56:37 Deep Dive: Inside the Data That Matters  1:03:23 Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.