Trade Houses Roofed 380 Fuel - Then Left It to Burn

Our latest show, the Flux News podcast is here. Hosted by Greg Newman, Group CEO, Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and Martha Dowding from Onyx Research, the show offers a comprehensive overview and discussion of the current oil market dynamics and trading strategies from the perspective of experienced industry professionals.  The show is broken down into multiple segments, so please feel free to skip to the segment you like.  Temperature Check: Your Pulse on the Market Right now, the market is warming up, with a sharp reversal of speculative short positions in Brent & WTI as CTAs hit their limits. Bullish momentum is building in crude and gasoline contracts, driving a steady market advance. Don’t miss out—tap in for real-time insights, expert takes, and the hottest trends shaping the market! Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market? Right now, traders are locked in on Middle Eastern crude and the latest OPEC headlines—that’s where the herd is moving…While sanctions and geopolitical tensions, like the Israel-Gaza conflict, are in the mix, it"s the OPEC narrative and supply dynamics that are truly shaping market sentiment. Stay ahead of the pack with our deep dives into what’s really moving traders! Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!  The biggest money-maker in the oil markets? Brent vs. Dubai differential! A sharp, predictable downward move—driven by OPEC headlines and Iran/Venezuela sanctions—set up a prime opportunity for trade houses and speculators to cash in. While Naphtha shorts in the MOPJ Crack also paid off, Brent-Dubai was the real jackpot. Stay locked in for the next big setup!  Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trap The 380 fuel oil crack caught traders off guard with a violent, unexpected rally that surged deep into positive territory. What seemed like a clear short turned into a painful squeeze, leaving many in the red. This shock move blindsided the market and proved once again why risk management is everything. Stay sharp—don’t get caught in the next Widow Maker. Deep Dive: Inside the Data That Matters Martha broke down the intricacies of Onyx’s proprietary data, offering a closer look at Naphtha’s setup going forward. From technical patterns and positioning to the pricing window backdrop, she mapped out the key signals traders need to watch. If you’re looking for an edge in the market, this is where you’ll find it.   Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis This segment focuses on where the market is heading next, using a mix of fundamental insights and proprietary research to generate trade ideas. It’s broken down into three key sub-segments: Onyx Beta – The Broad Market Outlook This is where the hosts lay out their big-picture views on key oil market benchmarks, looking at:Brent crude – directional bias and price action expectations.Front Brent timespread – analyzing the structure of the curve and potential moves in backwardation or contango.EBOB Crack – assessing the gasoline crack spread in Europe and its implications.Low Sulfur Fuel Crack in Asia – examining refining margins and demand signals for LSFO in the Asian market. Harry & Greg’s Trade of the Week To wrap up, Harry and Greg selected their favorite trade idea based on the discussion throughout the show. This time, they landed on the DFL (Dated Brent vs. Brent differential) as the best way to position for spot physical crude strength, reflecting tightness in the physical oil market versus the futures market. Chapters in this episode are: 0:00 Introduction 1:47 Tem