SI40: Is past performance actually indicative of future returns? ft. Corey Hoffstein

This week, we’re joined by Corey Hoffstein from Newfound Research, who also hosts the Flirting With Models podcast.  We discuss his journey into Systematic Investing, why the year you enter the markets will likely impact how you invest in the future, and why random returns can actually be worse for your system than bad returns.  Corey explains the term ‘Sequence Risk’, why investors should avoid being too short-term, why risk can only be transformed and not destroyed, and if past performance is actually indicative of future returns.  We also get Corey’s views on simplicity versus complexity, how he approaches diversification, and how he invests personally. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro including discussion of weekly events and the latest news from the FED 05:35 – Weekly review of performance 08:50 - Corey's journey 22:00 – Corey breaks down the 3 components of diversification: What, How and When 35:10 – Question: How do you know when your model is broken? 42:15 – Question: Do you think TF will continue to work? 52:00 – Question: What is sequence risk? & Why we should pay attention to it! 56:50 – Question: What do you mean by risk cannot be destroyed it can only be transformed? 01:01:20 – Question: How do you convince investors to include TF in their portfolio? 01:06:45 – Question: Please discuss simplicity, complexity, model robustness, etc. 01:17:40 – Question: How do you prioritize drawdown management above all else? 01:21:20 – Question: Why is...