The Regime Change No One Sees | Adam Parker on Why Valuations Are Lying to You

Adam Parker, founder and CEO of Trivariate and Trivector Research, joins Excess Returns to discuss how fundamental, quantitative, and macro perspectives intersect to shape markets today. Parker shares his long-term bullish case for U.S. equities, why traditional valuation signals no longer work, the biggest risks he sees for investors, and how AI, inflation, and market structure are reshaping opportunities and risks in real time. Main topics covered: Why combining fundamental, quantitative, and macro analysis gives a clearer view of markets The case for the S&P 500 reaching 10,000 by 2030 Structural reasons why market multiples may stay higher for longer The key bear cases: hyperscaler CapEx risk, fiscal deficits, and AI-driven unemployment Comparing today’s market to the dot-com era Why traditional recession indicators have failed How COVID changed the economic cycle and business synchronization Inflation, tariffs, and what the Fed is really watching Why valuation is a broken signal for stock picking The quant factors that matter most today ETF factor exposures and hidden risks How to think about the 60/40 portfolio, diversification, and private markets Why U.S. innovation and margins make it the dominant equity market Key lessons and philosophies for long-term investors Timestamps: 00:00 What really drives equity investing 03:00 Adam Parker’s background and multi-lens approach 05:00 Why he’s long-term bullish and sees S&P 10,000 08:00 Structural margin expansion and AI productivity 09:00 The three major bear cases 14:00 How today compares to the 1990s tech bubble 18:00 Why the economy has stayed resilient 20:00 COVID’s impact on business cycles 23:00 Market structure, inventory, and margins 24:00 Inflation, tariffs, and Fed outlook 29:00 Deficits and why timing macro risks is hard 32:00 Large vs small cap dynamics 37:00 Why valuation doesn’t work 41:00 Key quant factors to watch 43:00 ETF grading and hidden exposures 46:00 The 60/40 portfolio and asset allocation 51:00 U.S. vs Europe and innovation advantage 55:00 Lessons for investors and closing thoughts