The Geopolitical Premium Is Dead – Refinery Cracks Implode as the Oversupply Era Begins

The Domino Has Fallen.  Refinery margins — the last bullish stronghold — are collapsing. This isn"t just a signal; it"s confirmation that the market is finally pricing in the oversupply reality that’s been building for months. Goldman Sachs. The IEA. Every serious analyst has seen this coming — and now it’s here. The second half of the year marks a new regime: the geopolitical premium is dead, supply routes are open, and the market is done licking its wounds from last year’s chaos. Volatility has faded. Direction is back. The traders who see this shift are already positioning for what’s next: the great normalisation. In this episode of Flux News, the team break down how this moment changes everything — and where the money moves now. They also discuss: The collapse in refinery margins and what it signalsHow the Brent/Dubai spread is spelling out a physical market resetThe surge in CTA and money manager positioning—and why it might be too lateHeadline fatigue, flat volatility, and why everyone’s ignoring Iran… for nowWhy Ryanair’s recent hedging could be a top signal for distillatesThe crack collapse across gasoil, naphtha, and fuel oilA breakdown of the Great Normalisation—and why directional trades are finally back on the menu Goldman Sachs saw this coming. The IEA flagged it. Now it’s here: Geopolitical premium? Dead. Supply? Loose. Demand? Meh. The second half of the year is a new regime.  Want to trade?  Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ 🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market.  Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 20th May, 2025.  👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets:  https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ 👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal:  https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux 👉 The Officials report:  https://www.flux.live/the-official-reports/ 👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw  https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup  Follow us:  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/ X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/   Chapters for this episode are: 0:00 Introduction 1:06 Temperature Check: Your Pulse on the Market 7:53 Herd Mentality: What’s Driving the Market?  14:19 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown 19:41 Hedge Fund Watch 31:29 Crack Spread Chronicles: Refinery Margins 45:01 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big! 48:03 Widow Maker: The Market’s Biggest Trading Losses 52:04 Deep Dive: Inside the Data That Matters  58:36 Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking Analysis CFDs and spread bets