SI371: Trends Don’t Form Randomly. They Form Reflexively ft. Richard Brennan

Richard Brennan returns this week to explore how markets truly move - not through randomness or rationality, but through impact, feedback, and memory. What begins with a single trade builds into structure, not pattern; alignment, not noise. Drawing from neuroscience and fractal geometry, Rich challenges the idea that markets can be understood without understanding interaction. The episode builds toward a pointed exchange on position sizing - closed equity versus dynamic exposure - not as a technical footnote, but as a reflection of first principles. In a system where the path shapes the outcome, how you define risk... often reveals how you think the world works. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00:00 – Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series 00:00:23 – Niels’ intro, show setup, and warm welcome to Rich 00:00:57 – Heatwave down under: context and small talk 00:02:10 – Rich: divided brain, AI vs embodiment, and markets needing rules 00:07:50 – AI’s edge shrinks prediction windows; why that helps trend following 00:10:35 – Gold’s violent selloff; electricity vs oil as the new macro lens 00:14:51 – “Trend heaven”: why the backdrop now looks robust 00:18:12 – Post-GFC compression vs today’s decoupling and trends 00:22:43 – Impact and reflexivity: trades reshape the next trade 00:28:23 – Non-ergodic markets: path dependence beats Gaussian assumptions 00:35:48 – Volatility ≠...