SI322: Market Narratives and the Unpredictable Alpha ft. Mark Rzepczynski

In this episode, Mark Rzepczynski joins Alan Dunne to explore narratives, rationality, and behavioral uncertainty, particularly in the context of trend following. They discuss recent market trends in the wake of the election, with a focus on bond market movements. Mark shares insights on the current stage of the risk cycle and whether we’re witnessing an excessive buildup of leverage in the financial system. The conversation also delves into two fascinating studies: one on the significance of having access to the news and accurate information in trading, and another on how equity analysts forecast earnings—both with implications for trend following strategies. Finally, they examine the narratives currently shaping markets and debate whether trend following can be considered a source of “unpredictable alpha.” ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:39 - What has been on our radar recently? 05:43 - Industry performance update 10:17 - New times for bonds 14:37 - The issue is always in the details 19:02 - What is driving markets at the moment? 22:36 - The perspective on treasuries is changing 26:34 - Trend followers are going crypto 29:22 - Does crypto make sense in trend following? 30:47 - Where are we in the risk cycle? 34:57 - How spikes in credit spreads have impacted leverage 38:16 - Does "perfect information" exist? 43:27 - A kind and a wicked...