Shutdown, Markets, And The Big Bill

October 6, 2025 | Season 7 | Episode 37 A government shutdown should spook investors, yet stocks are climbing, futures are green, and deal flow is perking up. We unpack why markets often rally through shutdowns, where this one could truly bite if furloughs turn into layoffs, and what a data blackout does to sentiment and positioning. From there, we zoom out to structural shifts: Thomas Peterffy’s argument that 9:30–4:00 is a relic in a global, algorithmic market, why 24/7 trading for liquid mega-caps feels inevitable, and how stablecoins grease real-world payments while broader crypto still fights for purpose. Taxes take center stage as we translate the “big beautiful bill” into practical moves. Corporate rates anchored at 21% change capital allocation math, pass-through deductions remain powerful for qualifying owners, and estate and gift exemptions near $14M per individual materially alter lifetime and legacy planning. We dive into the enduring step-up in basis, refreshed SALT relief under income thresholds, and AMT tweaks—then outline concrete year-end ideas: maximizing qualified plan contributions, tax-loss harvesting to offset gains, and smart charitable giving with appreciated assets. Momentum stories are back too. A regional-bank merger hints at a broader M&A thaw, AMD’s developing partnership with OpenAI adds new energy to the GPU race, and healthcare pops on a less-punitive-than-feared drug pricing path. Abroad, Japan’s dovish surprise sinks the yen while France’s political shock widens spreads—together reinforcing a “debasement trade” mindset where investors favor stores of value: quality equities with pricing power, hard assets, and, for some, gold or Bitcoin. We close with an under-the-radar income idea: cold storage REITs trading at discounts to replacement cost, investing in automation, and paying you to wait for catalysts. If you find this useful, follow the show, share it with a friend who cares about markets and taxes, and leave a quick review—what topic should we tackle next? ** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice. For full disclosures, ADVs, and CRS Forms, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/disclosure ** To learn about becoming a Herold & Lantern Investments valued client, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/wealth-advisory-contact-form Follow and Like Us on Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn | @HeroldLantern