"Reserves Are Not Geopolitically Risk Free Anymore" Featuring Daan Struyven & Lina Thomas, Goldman Sachs

Today we had a fantastic conversation with Daan Struyven, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research and Managing Director, Head of Oil Research, alongside his colleague Lina Thomas, Commodities Strategist, with Goldman Sachs. Daan joined Goldman in 2015 and previously co-led the Goldman Global Economics team as well as the firm’s Canada Economics research effort. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from MIT. Lina joined Goldman after earning her Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard, where she focused on safe-haven assets. We were thrilled to welcome these Ph.D. powerhouses for a deep dive into a topic we haven’t yet explored on COBT – the gold markets and how they intersect with oil, gas, copper, interest rates, tariffs, geopolitics, central banks, structural market changes, and more.   In our discussion, Lina provides a detailed overview of the historical inverse relationship between gold and interest rates, and highlights the unusual strength of the gold rally that began in 2022. She describes that the rally was triggered by the freezing of Russian central bank assets in February 2022, which prompted central banks, particularly those geopolitically aligned or close to Russia, to increase gold purchases to reduce reliance on politically vulnerable reserve assets. Lina explains that in addition to modest investor inflows, ongoing central bank demand has played a critical role in sustaining gold’s price rise and discusses how geopolitical proximity is a key predictor of central bank gold buying. We explore Goldman’s approach to estimating actual central bank purchases, which are underreported in official data, Russia’s gathering of gold reserves ahead of its invasion of Ukraine, the effects of the war and subsequent sanctions, and how Russia rerouted its gold exports similar to its post-sanction oil trade. Daan outlines Goldman’s copper market outlook, including their view on proposed copper tariffs, the anticipated supply deficit by 2026 due to limited investment in new projects, their copper price forecast, and the key short-term drivers influencing copper prices. We cover gold’s unique role as a stock rather than a flow asset, with only about one percent of tradable gold coming from annual mine supply, why central banks favor gold over silver, Goldman’s four structural investment themes (Dollar Diversification, Defense Spending, Disinvestment in Supply, and De-risking Energy Systems), the firm’s crude oil outlook over the next year, and much more. We greatly appreciate Daan and Lina for sharing their time and perspectives.   Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that “Trumpatility” has faded considerably, with the S&P 500 Volatility Index now trading near year-to-date lows. Ironically, this introduces some degree of risk as broader markets are now technically overbought. Moody’s downgraded U.S. debt by one notch this past week but U.S. bonds and equities shrugged it off, mostly because U.S. bonds don’t typically move on ratings changes, but more so on inflation and employment growth, while broader equities are driven mostly by forward earnings estimates. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly on the U.S. debt downgrade while Bitcoin and gold prices are trading near all-time highs, likely a reflection of growing U.S. debt levels. He wrapped up with a roundup of notable Energy & Electricity headlines, including: Blackstone Infrastructure’s $11.5 billion acquisition of TXNM Energy; Strathcona Resource’s $6 billion takeover offer for MEG Energy; Phillips 66’s Proxy vote battle with Elliott (involving four board nominations); Trump’s unexpected reversal of his recent shutdown of Equinor’s Empire Wind 1 project off Long Island; and the recent decline in Permian oil rig count and the potential associated gas growth implications. Jeff Tillery also joined and peppered in his thoughts to the discussion.   We hope you find today’s discussion as insightful and interesting as we did. Our best to you all!