Pricing the Future (with Kalshi CEO)

with @mansourtarek_ @rhackett In this episode of web3 with a16z crypto, host Robert Hackett talks with Kalshi Cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour about how prediction markets are enabling people to trade directly on real-world events — from elections to inflation — and what this means for the future of finance and forecasting. Tarek explains why prediction markets aren’t gambling, how regulation has been central to Kalshi’s success, and why the company is embracing crypto and stablecoins as key components of its international strategy. He also discusses lessons learned about policy, product design, and staying compliant while innovating at the frontier. Topics include:How prediction markets make society "smarter"The role of regulation in fintech innovationWhy Kalshi started with crypto paymentsLessons from FTX and the importance of complianceBuilding consumer trust and network effectsTarek’s take on productivity, leadership, and even… kombucha This episode kicks off a special series of interviews recorded live at our recent Founders Summit. Subscribe to web3 with a16z crypto for more conversations with founders and builders shaping the decentralized future. Timestamps: 00:00 – Introduction: What are prediction markets, and why now? 01:04 – Kalshi’s mission: making forecasting tradable 01:52 – Why crypto fits into Kalshi’s long-term strategy 03:19 – Going global with stablecoins 05:55 – The long road to regulation and why it mattered 7:51 – Coinbase and Robinhood as role models 08:17 – The Trump trade: direct vs. indirect exposure to events 10:51 – Lessons from FTX and why compliance is a moat 12:06 – How Kalshi monitors markets and prevents manipulation  15:00 – Momentum after the presidential election 16:48 – How policy in DC really works 17:56 – The hidden advantage of being regulated 18:52 – Lightning round: worst advice, productivity habits, and more 21:00 – The importance of process and patience (“The Score Takes Care of Itself”) 22:30 – The smallest hill Tarek will die on Follow a16z crypto on...X: https://x.com/a16zcryptoLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/a16zcrypto/posts/Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7pMZvsNXEnb0CYcPiDQywEApple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/web3-with-a16z-crypto/id1622312549Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@a16zcrypto 📩 Subscribe for more industry reports, trend updates, news analysis, builder guides, and other resources: https://a16zcrypto.substack.com/subscribe/  🎙️ Like, subscribe, comment, share the show: https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/podcast/  *** As always, none of the following should be taken as investment, business, legal, or tax advice. Please see a16z.com/disclosures for more important information, including a link to a list of our investments. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.