Lewis Johnson of Capital Wealth Advisors on the Current Deglobalization Cycle and the Importance of Valuation and Risk Management

I’m excited to have my fishing buddy, Lewis Johnson, back for another round of Panic. He runs a couple billion dollars as the CIO of Capital Wealth Advisors. Lewis was first on in November of 2020 when we realized we might not die from COVID and the Fed was printing money and we were in market Nirvana. Back then we talked value and growth and commodities because Lewis understands cycles. He’d seen the worst stretch of value stocks versus growth stocks in the last 200 years. In this episode we talk cycles and supply chains and commodities and a strong dollar and valuation and the deglobalization cycle we find ourselves in now. What Lewis has is expertise, which is why I enjoy talking to investors like him at different points in time to expand my knowledge.  Guest - Lewis Johnson, CIO at Capital Wealth Advisors  howardlindzon.com, capitalwealthadvisors.com  blog.capitalwealthadvisors.com/trends-tail-risks Twitter: @howardlindzon, @PanicwFriends, @TrendsTailRisks, @knutjensen  linkedin.com/in/lewismjohnson  #fintech #invest #investment #venturecapital #stockmarket #finance  Show Notes: Introduction (00:40) 2020 Take - Value & Growth (04:17) Welcome Lewis (07:00) Cycles have a logic of their own (08:19) Commodities & Value back in favor (10:04) A Deglobalization Cycle underway (12:11) A chain of Deglobalization events (13:22) Positioning and asset allocation (16:47) The nature of the cycle (17:50) Taking a defensive stance (18:07) Real Estate bubble in China (18:29) De-risking early (20:12) Short squeeze in Commodities (20:44) The Fed can’t print corn (21:23) European energy supply crisis (21:46) Avoiding last cycles winners (22:41) Defensive/Offensive investing (25:16) Tech under a deglobalization mindset (26:13) Valuation is the first lens (26:48) Reconstructing the supply chain (27:25) Defense spending and stocks (27:50) Emerging markets in crisis (31:27) Living in Florida (33:33) Market volatility (35:47) Risk management first (36:19) Fundamentals, supply, demand, valuation matters (37:20) Avoiding black swans (37:43) 60% of the world’s debt is in dollars (39:02) Wrapping up (41:11) Closing thoughts (41:54)  Related Episode: Co-Founder and President of Fundamental Global Lewis Johnson Joins Me on Panic with Friends to Discuss the Business of Investing – from Asset Management to the Nature of Cycles (EP.120)