OI20: Why Commodities Refuse to Trend Forever ft. Doug King

Moritz Siebert speaks with Doug King about what it really means to trade commodities through cycles, distortions, and stress. Drawing on decades at Cargill and more than twenty years running a commodities hedge fund, Doug explains why innovation keeps scarcity narratives in check, why commodities resist buy and hold logic, and how real edge comes from cash markets rather than futures screens. He reflects on defining trades in oil, nickel, and agriculture, the limits of volatility targeting, and the discipline required to survive violent squeezes. The result is a grounded account of conviction, risk control, and why commodities reward patience more than prediction. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Follow Doug on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks and introduction to Top Traders Unplugged 01:24 - Introducing Doug King and his background 04:49 - From Cargill to hedge funds and the pull of commodities 07:05 - Why the fund is purely discretionary and fundamentals driven 09:50 - Team size, selectivity, and waiting for the right trades 10:45 - Why commodities are cyclical and innovation breaks scarcity 13:46 - Electrification and where long term excitement may lie 15:37 - Defining edge in commodities trading 18:12 - Physical delivery, convergence, and real market signals 20:23