Navigating Rising Yields

The financial world stands at a critical juncture as Treasury yields approach 18-year highs and markets wrestle with conflicting economic signals. In this riveting conversation between macro strategists Jim Bianco and Jay Hatfield, hosted by Michael Gayed, we explore the counterintuitive relationship between Fed policy and market reactions that has left many investors scratching their heads. When the Fed cut rates last September, yields went up. This paradox forms the backdrop for a fascinating debate about whether higher rates might actually be the cure for higher rates. Hatfield advances his "Hopfield Rule"—the observation that housing starts falling below 1.1 million units have preceded 11 of 12 post-WWII recessions—suggesting we may be closer to economic trouble than many realize. Meanwhile, a 20% drop in oil prices this year has created what Hatfield calls "stag-deflation" rather than the stagflation many fear. The conversation takes a surprising turn when examining market influences. Bianco reveals that retail investors purchased $4.1 billion worth of stocks in just four hours following the Moody"s downgrade, effectively stabilizing the market. This "do-it-yourself" investor revolution has fundamentally changed market dynamics, with retail traders wielding unprecedented influence despite focusing on just a handful of popular stocks and ETFs. Both experts offer nuanced perspectives on tariffs, inflation expectations, and the global bond sell-off. While the immediate outlook suggests continued volatility, they highlight that today"s fixed income market structure offers significantly more favorable characteristics than during the initial rate hiking cycle of 2022-2023. Whether you"re concerned about spiking Treasury yields, curious about the impact of retail traders, or trying to position your portfolio for what comes next, this discussion provides crucial insights from two of the sharpest minds in macro investing. Subscribe for more illuminating conversations that help you navigate these complex market conditions. With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using  AI — featuring word-level citations, chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive  Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish! It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world! Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups! HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world. So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show