My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

10 Sep 2025 • 30 min • EN
30 min
00:00
30:25
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Can AI stocks beat Big Tech? In this episode, I discuss OpenAI and its decision to expand a secondary share sale that lets insiders sell about $10.3 billion of stock at roughly a $500 billion valuation. Although skeptical at first, the calculations reveal there is a path for OpenAI to deliver outsized returns. I cover: (0:00) The $500B question  (01:11) Why the Nasdaq Index is the benchmark  (03:35) Inside the OpenAI-Microsoft deal  (05:50) The bull case: OpenAI’s trillion-dollar path  (09:33) The AI market explosion  (12:39) The bear case: Competition and constraints  (17:13) Exploring the models of tomorrow  (20:58) The disruption premium  (23:21) Where will OpenAI’s revenue come from?  (29:14) The final verdict Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

From "Azeem Azhar's Exponential View"

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