Kesten Green: “Net Zero Makes No Sense” | Tom Nelson Pod #315

Dr. Green is co-director of forecastingprinciples.com, a site promoting evidenced-based forecasting, and is a pioneer of methods to predict the decisions people will make in conflict situations such as occur in wars and in business. Green became interested in climate forecasting when he realized the dire predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and others might result in policies that would cause great harm to people. He decided to use his knowledge of forecasting to investigate whether predictions of dangerous manmade global warming were based on scientific forecasting methods. 00:00 Introduction to Kesten Green and Climate Forecasting 01:12 Initial Climate Forecasting Efforts 03:24 Collaboration with Willie Soon 04:54 Scientific Method and Alternative Hypotheses 05:41 Critique of IPCC Climate Models 06:15 Summary of Findings: Net Zero Makes No Sense 13:21 IPCC's Attribution Studies and Solar Variables 15:14 Challenges in Detection and Attribution of Temperature Trends 18:57 Testing Predictive Validity of Climate Models 34:29 Urban Heat Island Effect and Rural Temperature Anomalies 43:43 Benchmarking and Simplicity in Forecasting 51:56 Analyzing Rural Temperature Forecasts 53:17 Comparing IPCC and Independent Models 54:23 Forecasting with Extended Data 59:03 Evaluating Model Reliability 59:56 Statistical Fit vs. Predictive Validity 01:01:17 Exploring Model Estimation Techniques 01:05:23 Anthropogenic vs. Natural Influences 01:28:04 Challenges in Scientific Publishing 01:33:31 Conclusions on Climate Models 01:36:21 Historical Environmental Alarms https://kestencgreen.com/ https://heartland.org/about-us/who-we-are/kesten-green/ About the Green & Soon (2025) paper: https://x.com/cohler/status/1924777203298140608 ========= AI summaries of all of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1