How Close Are We to AGI? Inside Epoch's GATE Model (with Ege Erdil)

On this episode, Ege Erdil from Epoch AI joins me to discuss their new GATE model of AI development, what evolution and brain efficiency tell us about AGI requirements, how AI might impact wages and labor markets, and what it takes to train models with long-term planning. Toward the end, we dig into Moravec’s Paradox, which jobs are most at risk of automation, and what could change Ege's current AI timelines.   You can learn more about Ege's work at https://epoch.ai   Timestamps:  00:00:00 – Preview and introduction  00:02:59 – Compute scaling and automation - GATE model  00:13:12 – Evolution, Brain Efficiency, and AGI Compute Requirements  00:29:49 – Broad Automation vs. R&D-Focused AI Deployment  00:47:19 – AI, Wages, and Labor Market Transitions  00:59:54 – Training Agentic Models and Long-Term Planning Capabilities  01:06:56 – Moravec’s Paradox and Automation of Human Skills  01:13:59 – Which Jobs Are Most Vulnerable to AI?  01:33:00 – Timeline Extremes: What Could Change AI Forecasts?