Good Friday… Good Times… Bad Markets

Good times... Bad markets! Today we talk about recent volatility in the market, particularly in the bond market, as there is a lot of geopolitical uncertainty that are coming with Trump’s economic moves. There may be a market downturn of up to 40% and the Fed will respond most likely respond by cutting rates, a familiar cycle in which political and monetary forces intervene to stabilize markets. Ultimately, if there's a recession, we still don't need to panic, the US markets are still strong so invest accordingly! We discuss... Market volatility recently spiked to levels not seen since COVID, driven by geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty. Trump’s unpredictable moves reintroduced risk into the markets, which had become too complacent. The Fed is currently in a wait-and-see mode, which markets interpret as a lack of proactive response. Trump criticized the Fed for not following the ECB in cutting rates, claiming it weakens U.S. competitiveness. The podcast host believes the market can handle high rates and criticized Powell’s pre-election rate cut as political. A continued market selloff is expected, with potential drops of 30–40% in the S&P 500 this year. If markets decline significantly, the Fed is likely to step in and cut rates to stabilize things. Historically, market declines have been followed by Fed intervention, which then props markets back up. A mild recession is likely before any recovery, but the overall economy remains fundamentally strong. Tariffs are currently painful for businesses but are viewed as a negotiation tactic rather than a permanent fixture. Markets dislike uncertainty, and the next six months are expected to be rocky before clarity returns. Keeping cash on hand is advised to take advantage of potential lower asset prices Americans are generally uncomfortable with negotiation and volatility compared to the rest of the world. Manufacturing may not fully return to the U.S., but diversification is critical for national security. Time dilation and recency bias cause people to misjudge the permanence of current events like tariffs. Leaders like Trump and Powell are motivated by legacy, not destruction. A stronger dollar could hurt gold and hard assets but elevate the U.S. as the most stable economy. Investors should routinely reassess their holdings to see if they would still buy them today. Always identify the potential exit point for any investment to manage risk.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/good-times-bad-markets-705