Finding the Next Great Tech Compounders | John Tinsman

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with John Tinsman, portfolio manager of the AOT Growth and Innovation ETF (AOTG). John shares how his investing journey began, the lessons he learned from both successes and failures, and how those experiences shaped his current investment philosophy. We dive deep into the concepts of low marginal cost, profitable growth, digital toll booths, and the transformative impact of AI. John also discusses his approach to valuation, position sizing, and why he believes large-cap growth and technology will continue to lead in the years ahead. Main topics covered: John’s path from personal investing to launching an ETF Lessons learned from early stock picks and market-making experience The power of low marginal cost businesses and long-term compounding How AI is reshaping software development, innovation, and profitability The importance of revenue and earnings growth in stock selection Digital toll booths as the future of software business models Differences between profitable vs. unprofitable growth companies Why technology leadership today differs from the dot-com era The role of sectors, valuation, and position sizing in portfolio construction John’s views on growth vs. value, large-cap vs. small-cap, and future innovation trends Timestamps: 00:00 The riskiest thing in investing 02:00 John’s background and early investing journey 05:00 Lessons from Apple, Boeing, Visa, and Potash 10:00 Insights from agriculture and value investing 12:00 AI’s impact on software development and innovation 16:00 Sectors, classifications, and thematic approaches 18:00 Comparing AI disruption to past bubbles 21:00 Profitability in today’s tech companies 22:00 Will the top companies stay dominant? 26:00 Large-cap vs. small-cap technology investing 28:00 Growth vs. value in today’s market 30:00 Demographics, Buffett’s lessons, and sector shifts 34:00 Value vs. software companies 35:00 Digital toll booths explained 37:00 Growth sustainability and digital infrastructure 40:00 Semiconductor cycles and long-term demand 44:00 Screening for growth and low marginal cost 47:00 Sell discipline and valuation checks 49:00 Position sizing and portfolio management 51:00 ETF tax benefits and structure 53:00 Where AOTG fits in portfolios 54:00 One belief peers disagree with 56:00 One lesson for the average investor 57:00 Closing thoughts and outro