Finding Decade-Long Compounders with Joseph Shaposhnik

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Joseph Shaposhnik, founder of Rainwater Equity and former star portfolio manager at TCW. Joseph shares the investment philosophy that drove his track record of outperformance, why he focuses on recurring revenue businesses, and how he evaluates management quality and capital allocation. We also explore lessons from great investors like Warren Buffett, Bill Miller, and Peter Lynch, along with insights on valuation, portfolio concentration, and the role of passive investing in today’s markets. Main topics covered: How Joseph achieved long-term outperformance at TCW and what drove his results Why recurring revenue and predictable cash flows are central to his approach The importance of management quality and identifying “fanatics” vs. mercenaries Lessons investors should and should not take from Warren Buffett Bill Miller’s influence and backing of Rainwater Equity Characteristics Joseph looks for in great businesses and red flags in management teams Portfolio concentration, position sizing, and risk management Why you don’t need to have an opinion on every sector Selling discipline and knowing when it’s time to move on How valuation fits into his framework and how he thinks about paying up for quality The impact of passive investing and why active managers must take a long-term view Stories and lessons from Peter Lynch, including his enduring influence Timestamps: 0:00 If a stock has doubled, you haven’t missed it 1:00 Introduction and Joseph’s track record at TCW 2:00 Keys to long-term outperformance 8:00 Lessons from Warren Buffett’s wins and mistakes 11:30 Bill Miller’s influence and support for Rainwater Equity 14:00 What defines a high-quality business 20:00 Free cash flow compounding and moats 24:00 Red flags in management teams 31:00 Why active management is broken and Joseph’s solution 35:00 Portfolio concentration and risk management 42:00 Sectors to avoid and why 47:00 Joseph’s selling discipline 53:00 Exceptional leaders and the role of management quality 58:00 Valuation, future value, and the changing economy 1:04:00 Passive investing and market distortions 1:09:00 Lessons and stories from Peter Lynch 1:14:00 Closing questions and key investing lessons 1:20:00 Where to learn more about Joseph and Rainwater Equity