Briefing #248: "2025 - The Odds of Another Positive Year?" (Jan. 7, 2025)

The discussion explores the potential for positive U.S. equity performance in 2025 amid economic challenges, emphasizing growth expectations and demographic concerns. Highlights: 📈 U.S. equities could see an 8-12% growth in 2025. 💰 Major companies are increasing capital expenditures significantly. 🌍 Global demographic trends pose challenges for economic growth. 🔄 M&A activity is expected to rise, potentially reshaping industries. 🏦 The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will impact market dynamics. ⚖️ The U.S. remains the most stable option amid global uncertainties. 📉 Corporate debt levels may lead to increased defaults. Key Insights: 📊 Equity Growth Potential: Analysts forecast a modest growth of 8-12% for U.S. equities in 2025, signaling a return to historical norms after previous strong performances. This reflects a cautious optimism amidst economic fluctuations. 🏢 Corporate Investment Surge: Large tech firms are ramping up capital expenditures, indicating confidence in growth and innovation. This shift suggests that companies are preparing for future opportunities, positioning themselves strategically in the market. 🌐 Demographic Challenges: The aging population in countries like China and Japan may hinder economic productivity. As labor forces shrink, the need for increased productivity through technology becomes more critical. 🔍 M&A Activity: With market pressures, companies are likely to engage in mergers and acquisitions to optimize resources. This could lead to a more dynamic market landscape as firms seek to enhance their competitive positions. 💵 Monetary Policy Impact: The Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rates will significantly influence market conditions. Expectations of rate cuts may need to be tempered, which could affect investment strategies. 🏠 U.S. as a Safe Haven: Despite global uncertainties, the U.S. economy is viewed as the best option for stability. This perception may drive investment towards U.S. assets, reinforcing the dollar’s status as a reserve currency. 📉 Corporate Debt Risks: Increasing corporate debt levels could lead to higher default rates, particularly for weaker companies. This presents a risk to overall market stability, emphasizing the need for careful investment decisions. -+-+-+- 360 One Firm (361Firm) is an independent global platform to collaborate on investments & philanthropies by/for family offices, institutional investors, and thought leaders. We collaborate across asset classes, industries and borders, in funds and direct (co-)investments as well as in both impact and charitable organizations and causes. Co-founded by ex-Andersen partners, we have a collaborative "one firm"​ culture, tailored to family offices who can add extraordinary value from industry experience and relationships. We believe in active engagement, facilitated by Weekly Briefing Roundtables, "Deep Dive" (web) conferences, and monthly Global Conferences (www.361firm.com/subs). Website: http://www.361firm.com/home LinkedIn: / 360onefirm Important Notice for 361Firm Events: Rule #1: Teach. No Pitching or Politics. Our 361 forums are designed to facilitate connecting and open, respectful discussions and sharing of data, macro-level ideas, strategies, and insights across industries, asset classes, regions, philanthropies, or other topics. It is prohibited to discuss specific investment offerings or products in these events or our App, but of course you build relationships that can organically lead to offline discussions. Rule #2 - be sure to register. Qualified Purchasers (QPs) can join certain invite-only sessions. Sessions May Be Recorded. By participating in person or virtually, you agree to our sharing recordings, e.g. 361firm.com/synopses. 360 One Firm Capital LLC (361Firm) may include in these materials or events companies (1) in which 361Firm may have invested in or alongside and/or (2) which are clients for which 361Firm could earn a fee from raising capital or connecting to talent or strategic partners. / 361firm (the “361Firm YouTube Channel") is operated by 361Firm, a privately held limited liability company registered in the State of Delaware. 361Firm provides strategic and financial services. 361Firm offers Securities through Finalis Securities LLC Member FINRA (https://www.finra.org/) / SIPC (https://www.sipc.org/). 361Firm and Finalis Securities LLC are separate, unaffiliated entities. You can subscribe to various 361 events and content at https://361firm.com/subs. For reference: Web: www.361firm.com/homeOnboard as Investor: https://361.pub/shortdiagOnboard Deals 361: www.361firm.com/onbOnboard as Banker: www.361firm.com/bankersEvents: www.361firm.com/eventsContent: www.youtube.com/361firmWeekly Digests: www.361firm.com/digest