Beyond the Markets: Finding Confidence Through Courage in Finance and Life

September 22, 2025 | Season 7 | Episode 35 What happens when a tech giant can borrow money at lower rates than the U.S. government? This fascinating development signals a potential paradigm shift in how markets view sovereign debt risk—and it"s just one of many remarkable insights from the aftermath of the Federal Reserve"s recent rate cut decision. The Fed"s quarter-point reduction marks the first cut since December, but market reactions have been surprisingly complex. While short-term variable rates tied to indices like the prime rate typically follow Fed movements—benefiting credit card holders and those with floating mortgages—we"re seeing the 10-year Treasury yield unexpectedly rebound from 4% to 4.14%. This movement reflects underlying concerns about economic strength and inflation persistence that could temper the pace of future rate cuts. Looking deeper at the Federal Open Market Committee vote patterns reveals greater consensus than anticipated for the moderate approach. Even officials expected to advocate for more aggressive cuts aligned with Chairman Powell"s measured stance. Meanwhile, the Fed"s "dot plot" projections indicate another potential quarter to half-point cut before year-end, though with notably less consensus than markets had hoped for—creating uncertainty that"s now reflected in equity valuations. Beyond interest rates, we"re witnessing fascinating shifts across asset classes. Gold has surged to new highs while cryptocurrencies have declined significantly, challenging narratives about modern inflation hedges. Perhaps most remarkably, Microsoft recently issued 10-year bonds at 3.625%—significantly below comparable Treasury yields—suggesting investors may be growing more concerned about U.S. government debt levels than well-rated corporate debt. For your portfolio strategy, these developments demand thoughtful reassessment as we approach the end of 2025"s third quarter. With substantial cash still on sidelines and sentiment showing a mix of bullishness and caution, positioning correctly for what comes next requires both courage and confidence. As James Clear wisely notes, "The confidence that you can bounce back from failure is earned by working through previous failures." ** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice. For full disclosures, ADVs, and CRS Forms, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/disclosure ** To learn about becoming a Herold & Lantern Investments valued client, please visit https://heroldlantern.com/wealth-advisory-contact-form Follow and Like Us on Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn | @HeroldLantern