Australia's Population Surge & Regional Shift

Australia’s population grew by 1.8 per cent in the 12 months to September 2024, adding 484,000 people to the national headcount, according to the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).  That puts our population at 27.3 million, with overseas migration once again leading the charge—albeit at a slower pace than earlier quarters. While the post-pandemic migration surge has moderated, we’re still seeing 618,000 arrivals versus 238,000 departures, giving us a net overseas migration figure of 380,000.  This continues a tapering trend, but still marks a major contributor to the housing pressure being felt across the country. Western Australia led the states in population growth, rising 2.5 per cent. Victoria followed at 2.1 per cent and Queensland at 2.0 per cent. In contrast, Tasmania’s population barely grew, increasing just 0.3 per cent over the same period. At the state level, New South Wales added 120,800 residents to reach 8.5 million, while Victoria added 146,700 to reach just over 7 million. Queensland’s population climbed to 5.6 million, with 111,900 new residents over the year.  These increases represent real housing demand across all tenures: ownership, rental, and emergency accommodation. But while net overseas migration is slowing, a separate but related shift is gaining traction again: regional migration.  The Regional Australia Institute’s (RAI) latest Regional Movers Index revealed that internal migration to regional areas, while slowing compared to the COVID boom, remains a long-term structural trend. The RMI shows a fourfold increase in migration from capital cities to places like Bendigo and Bunbury.  Sydneysiders still account for the bulk of outflows (59 per cent), although that share is falling. Melburnians, on the other hand, are rising—now making up 40 per cent of net capital outflows. Greater Geelong and Bendigo are the clear winners in Victoria. Bendigo, in particular, is surging off the charts, with a 63 per cent quarterly growth in migration and a fourfold increase year-on-year.  It’s now second only to Bunbury in WA as the fastest-growing regional centre. And what happens when people move? House prices follow. Bunbury’s median house price jumped 28 per cent in 2024—the highest growth of any WA regional centre. Geelong’s rise in popularity is also pressuring housing stock and values. What this all signals is that the city-to-regional migration story isn’t going away—it’s simply evolving. And it’s not just young professionals making the shift. According to new research from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, older, wealthier Australians are leading the regional migration trend, motivated by lifestyle factors and affordability.  This shift has profound implications—not just for property values but for rental stress in areas traditionally considered affordable. Professor Nicole Gurran from the University of Sydney notes that regional migration creates a “ripple effect”—pushing up rents and home prices not only in high-growth towns but also in outlying areas as low-income earners are displaced. “Increased pressure on housing costs in the regions creates knock-on effects for affordability in neighbouring communities,” Gurran said. “It’s especially critical that we ramp up investment in social and emergency housing to offset these shifts.” So what’s the bottom line? Australia’s housing supply continues to lag population growth. Migration—both international and domestic—remains a powerful driver of housing demand. And while big-city markets get the media spotlight, regional areas are where the most intense growth and pressure are now playing out. Investors, policymakers, and developers should be taking note: this isn’t a COVID blip—it’s a decade-long demographic realignment. Ignore it at your peril.