#289 Michael Howell: Time To Start Thinking About The End Game As Liquidity Cycle Nears Top

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show, where he analyzes global liquidity trends and warns of market risks ahead. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Howell presents his global liquidity cycle framework showing markets are late in a 35-month bull run that began in late 2022, with early warning signs emerging in repo markets as SOFR spreads spike. He warns of a massive debt refinancing wall hitting 2026-2029 from COVID-era borrowing, while the Fed transitions from QE to "Treasury QE" under Bessent's direction to fund real economy priorities. Howell's most striking thesis involves gold price targets of $10,000 by the late 2030s and $25,000 by 2052 based on structural deficit math, driven by both US monetary inflation and China's liquidity expansion to escape its debt crisis. He advocates for monetary inflation hedges like gold and Bitcoin as central banks deliberately weaken currencies in a "Make America Great" strategy against China. Links:  Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902 0:00 Welcome and introduction - Michael Howell returns to discuss markets 1:14 Global liquidity cycle framework - 5-6 year cycle approaching top 3:41 Late cycle positioning - thinking end game vs beginning 6:06 Debt-liquidity integration - 80% of lending now collateral-backed 8:46 Early warning signs - SOFR spreads and repo market tensions 11:49 Debt-liquidity ratio analysis - refinancing crisis ahead 14:15 COVID debt echo effect - massive refinancing wall 2026-2029 17:04 Fed balance sheet slowdown - similar to early 2022 conditions 18:51 Treasury QE emergence - Bessent directing liquidity to real economy 20:20 Stablecoin monetization - credit providers buying government debt 22:36 Plain vanilla cycle - everything following normal script 25:00 Asset allocation phases - rebound, calm, speculation, turbulence 29:20 Gold breakout analysis - disconnect from real rates since 2022 31:45 Structural deficit math - mandatory spending blowout ahead 33:42 Gold price targets - $10,000 by late 2030s, $25,000 by 2052 35:56 Monetary vs high street inflation - currency devaluation vs CPI 39:44 Fed independence questioned - Treasury QE running the show 41:51 Make America Great currency war - deliberate dollar weakening 44:08 China's gold strategy - escaping debt crisis through monetization 46:33 Chinese liquidity expansion - driving global commodity reflation 50:05 Final thoughts - late cycle caution, gold as monetary hedge