#283 Warren Pies On The Widening Perception Gap In Macro, Why A Rate Cut Is Inconsequential,

Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, explains how markets have transitioned from a deflationary mindset to a debasement era over the past five years, driven primarily by massive fiscal spending rather than Fed policy. He argues that anger directed at the Fed should be redirected toward fiscal authorities who created unprecedented pro-cyclical deficits. Pies is benchmark long equities and bullish on hard assets like gold, having hit his $3,500 gold target this year. He believes Fed rate cuts will be inconsequential since fiscal dominance has already changed the paradigm, and core CPI won't fall below 3% due to tariff-driven goods inflation replacing the pre-pandemic goods deflation that helped achieve the 2% target. This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/ https://x.com/WarrenPies Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and introduction 1:18 Big picture framework 5:03 Behavioral changes in debasement era 8:00 Fiscal dominance 10:49 Jackson Hole speech 12:18 Labor market loosening 16:06 Immigration impact 17:31 Inflation stickiness 21:44 Widening perception gap in macro 26:23 Housing market outlook 30:07 Equity positioning 32:35 Bond allocation 35:36 Gold outlook 37:06 Bitcoin allocation 38:28 AI optimism 42:45 Closing remarks