#274 Henrik Zeberg: Markets Approaching Historic Blow-Off Top Before Major Crash

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock, warns that markets are approaching a historic "blow-off top" with the S&P 500 potentially reaching 6,700-6,900 before a devastating crash. Using his business cycle model, he argues we've already hit the "Titanic moment" - where leading indicators have collapsed while markets surge to bubble extremes. Zeberg predicts this "Everything Bubble" will lead to a deflationary crash potentially worse than 2008, followed by a stagflationary period in 2026-2028. He criticizes the Federal Reserve for massive policy errors, focusing on backward-looking inflation data while ignoring consumer distress and housing market deterioration. Despite being long Bitcoin (targeting $150K-$180K), he warns it could crash 80% and sees parallels to subprime risks in corporate treasuries loaded with crypto. Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/p/final-warning-the-emperors-new-clothes 0:00 Welcome Henrik Zeberg 0:43 Macro framework and business cycle model 3:29 Titanic moment explained 6:09 Blow-off top targets (S&P 6,700-6,900) 8:06 Trading vs investing in this environment 9:30 Market signposts to watch 11:21 Post blow-off top scenario 14:30 How sharp will the decline be? 18:00 Prediction markets showing 20% recession odds 18:54 Liquidity vs solvency problem 23:03 Federal Reserve policy errors 26:21 Fed credibility problems 29:11 What to ask Powell at FOMC 31:09 Will the Fed cut rates in 2025? 33:08 Bitcoin analysis and bubble concerns 37:30 Bitcoin as subprime risk 40:01 Gold outlook and inflation narrative 42:45 The "Everything Bubble" thesis 48:13 How to protect yourself 51:16 Final thoughts and where to find Henrik