#232 Ed Dowd: Why The Next Recession Is Different — The Coming Economic Reset in 2025

Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 232 to his macro thesis for 2025 and beyond. Dowd explains why he believes the US economy was propped up by unsustainable factors under the Biden administration, and how a recession under Trump would actually be proof of a necessary economic restructuring in favor of the middle class. This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/ US Economy Outlook 2025: https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdward Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:34 Analyzing the unprecedented factors propping up the economy under Biden 03:14 Framing a recession as proof Trump is restructuring the economy for the middle class 05:03 How illegal immigration juiced the economy and will now reverse 07:28 Potential clash of fiscal priorities in Trump administration 09:03 Housing market correction expected as Fed-induced liquidity unwinds 11:18 Investors have the inflation story wrong, bond yields headed lower 13:12 Passive investing dominance a risk as markets turn 15:08 Recessions create generational opportunities for wealth transfer 16:11 AI bubble looks like dot-com infrastructure build-out before revenues 18:21 DeepSeek upending AI cost model, long-term bullish but near-term volatility 20:33 Gold's historical relationship with Fed rate cuts and dollar 23:24 Immigration's role in boosting money velocity and skewing economic data 26:55 Getting out of fiscal dominance to boost private investment 29:54 Using dry powder and dollar cost averaging in market downturns 32:40 Why a bond market dislocation would be fast but not necessarily a crash 35:47 Dollar strength not at risk, Treasury demand in recession 38:43 Expecting Fed cuts at or before March meeting, following T-bill market 41:24 Banks' unrealized losses shifting from duration to credit risk, CRE troubles 43:50 Doge's promising early progress on spending cuts, debt reduction 45:31 Housing transaction volumes slumping, a leading indicator 46:04 BoJ's Hobson's choice a key risk to watch, potential currency crisis 49:05 Strong dollar a sign of global dollar liquidity issues 51:23 Optimistic on government spending revelations and a potential "golden age" 53:24 Key takeaways - don't fear recession, creates opportunities, report details