#223 Chris Whalen: If Trump Doesn't Attack The Fiscal Issue Head On, He Could Be Lame Duck | 2025 Outlook

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Episode 223 of the Julia La Roche Show for his first outlook of 2025. Whalen explains why he believes long-term interest rates could rise unless Trump makes "real progress" on the federal deficit, warns a "kamikaze release" of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship without legislation would be highly disruptive, and shares why focusing on Treasury policy rather than the Federal Reserve is "all that matters." He also discusses why stocks could be "ready for a downward adjustment" after outperforming in 2023-2024, and offers a surprisingly optimistic longer-term view if Washington can demonstrate "real leadership." Links:     Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/    Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/   Timestamps: 00:00 Welcome back to Chris Whalen 01:12 2024 retrospective and consumer spending 02:42 Housing affordability and discretionary spending 04:49 Inflation outlook and Fed policy 06:31 Fed's focus on market stability over inflation 08:16 Fed rate cuts projection for 2025 10:52 Trump administration 2.0 outlook 11:42 Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion 13:21 Recession probability assessment 15:25 GSE release implications 19:45 Best approach to GSE reform 21:47 Federal deficit challenges 23:38 US debt situation and spending freeze 25:49 Treasury debt issuance strategy 27:42 Shifting narrative from Fed to Treasury 28:36 Market outlook for 2025 30:50 Closing thoughts on leadership and demographics