#219 Campbell Harvey: End of Boom-Bust Cycle? | Will Yield Curve Show First False Signal?

Professor Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and the inventor of the most famous recession indicator — the inverted yield curve — returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 219 to discuss the state of the economy, the yield curve, and what's ahead for U.S. growth. Links:   DeFI and the Future of Finance: https://www.amazon.com/DeFi-Future-Finance-Campbell-Harvey/dp/1119836018 https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/faculty/campbell-harvey https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ https://twitter.com/camharvey Timestamps: 00:02 Introduction to Professor Campbell Harvey 00:51 BlackRock's "end of boom-bust cycle" thesis 04:15 Historical perspective on market cycles 06:14 Impact of wealthy consumers on economy 07:13 Role of technological innovation 11:37 U.S. leadership in innovation 14:31 Growth prospects and productivity potential 16:09 Post-election growth outlook 24:56 U.S. debt and deficit challenges 28:16 Social Security sustainability issues 32:51 Inverted yield curve indicator discussion 40:11 Impact of technological innovations 45:21 Federal Reserve policy critique 50:20 Distortions from Fed's zero-rate policy 54:18 Future consequences of Fed decisions 59:40 Closing thoughts on U.S. prospects