Forward Guidance

This week, we discuss the Fed’s whiplash on December rate-cut expectations, why markets are being driven more by positioning and volatility than fundamentals, and how AI-led CapEx is masking weakness across the real economy. We also dig into the Beige Book’s warnings on employment and AI-driven layoffs, the political p

In this episode, Jordi Visser joins the show to discuss how exponential technologies, shifting demographics, and rising wealth concentration are quietly reshaping the economic landscape in ways traditional macro models can’t capture. He hints at why AI, deflation, and political incentives may matter far more than the u

This week, we discuss NVIDIA’s latest earnings, how shifting credit dynamics could reshape the next phase of the AI boom, what the Fed’s mixed signals really imply for markets, and why global FX moves are sending quiet warnings. We also dig into the surprising forces driving crypto’s recent washout and what they may si

In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to break down how credit growth, falling real rates, and strong cross-border flows fueled the rally from April through summer, and why the Fed’s recent hawkish shift has introduced short-term volatility without meaningfully raising recession risk. We also cover auto-loan st

This week, we discuss markets wobbling as a pointless government shutdown, delayed data releases, and a hawkish Fed collide with rising credit stress, over-levered AI giants, and widening inequality. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com

In this episode, founder of Elm Wealth and co-founder of LTCM Victor Haghani shares lessons from Long-Term Capital Management and contrasts today’s highly levered hedge-fund world with LTCM’s era. He also explains Elm’s Dynamic Index Investing framework and why simplicity and discipline outperform complexity and return